Forecast type:

- convective outlook

Dynamic and Thermodynamic analyse:      

... SYNOPSIS ... 

A sharp waveguide is stretching across the Atlantic Ocean into southern Europe and the Mediterranean Sea far east. Along this zone of high potential vorticity gradient numerous disturbances are sliding east providing recurring areas of ascent over the same regions (Portugal, the central Mediterranean sea, N Africa, Greece, Turkey ...) with large amounts of thunderstorms episodes. Given a high baroclinic saturation of the troposphere rounding the North Hemisphere (wavenumber 6-7 )  wave translations are fast and jet streams are very strong.... Across Europe a large scale troughing is covering most of the continent with some intra-structural mass redistributions such as embedded anticyclogenesis across Scandinavia which drifts SE during Sunday.

This feature will be linked to a mid-level trough amplification across NW Russia given upstream momentum advection and surface cold advection into E / SE Europe by Sunday and Monday. The anticyclone will hold its central pressure (up to 1025+hPa) thank to a DNVA and ageostrophic convergence within the right exit region of a 30m/s mid-level jet-streak supported by a surface height rises. 

Embedded within a 70m/s upper jet-stream and associated with enhanced Plumb wave activity flux, which is directed from the eastern Atlantic into the E Mediterranean, a shortwave impulse will migrate through Iberia into N Algeria and Tunisia during Sunday. Its maximum of QG ascent will overspread the dry Sahara desert with some precipitation zone along N Algeria where frontogenesis faces a tad more favorable moisture. Positive vorticity advection and upper-level diffluence amid steeper lapse rates within the trough provides at least marginal destabilization for a few thunderstorms embedded within a precipitation shield.

No severe storms are forecast but some cells can enhance precipitation accumulations along western and southern shorelines (Sardegna, W Italy and the Gulf of Lion.)