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Level: 15%
Forecast type: - conv.outlook |
Synoptic situation and Discussion: ... SYNOPSIS ... An excessive baroclinic zone is about to form in the Central Europe associated with two main cyclonic vortices.. First one is advancing southeastward beneath Shetland Isles and a second one is overspreading Baltic states and their vicinity. A sharpening mid-level shortwave trough is overspreaded by a very strong jet-stream (ML 60m/s) covering much of the Europe.. The trough will amplify eastward during the forecast period and bring unsettled conditions in the Central and Western Europe. Higher geopotentials will cover SE Europe and Balkans to Turkey.. A Cut-off low over Africa will be absorbed by the trough at the end of the forecast period... An extensive LL cold air advection will result across much of the Europe, when the first cyclonic vortex will move from the North Sea across the southern Baltic Sea shores, terminating the long -lasting above average temperatures. ...CENTRAL EUROPE... Impressive dynamic processes will be accompanying the trough during Monday.. A belt of the strong vorticity advection before the main system will overspread the low level baroclinic boundary which minimizes omega values and provides sufficient upward motions.. Marginal destabilization from WAA and heigh falls as well as the QG forcing will be sufficient for the convective initiation along the main low-level convergence zone. The main uncertainty will be the cloud canopy but strong WAA, dew points in lower tens and few sun spells should boost MLCAPE to 400-500 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear 25-30m/s and elongated hodographs will guarantee few rotating updrafts moving along the convergence zone due to the mostly paralell boundary shear vectors. Higher chances for isolated supercells exist in W Ukraine with more perpendicular shear vectors to the baroclinic front with similar amount of instability. An isolated large hail risk is possible within an initial convection which will diminish after the convection will merge into a more linear form transfering this risk to excessive precipitation. .... BENELUX -> Germany ... Very strong quasi-geostrophic forcing will acompany a surface cold front drifting towards Benelux in 12Z.. An impressive vorticity advecion and a remarkable ageostrophic wind divergence near the positively tilted trough axis will induce strong vertical motions with LL mass response: 1020 to 1005 hPa pressure drop over Benelux in 14h. An along frontal convection as well as post frontal low-topped cells within the tropopause fold / IPV advection will form in strongly sheared environment (20-50m/s 0-6km DLS increasing southwards). Veering winds ahead of the cold front and curved LL hodographs can induce tornadogenesis with LCL´s lying under 800m.. An impressive vector configuration indices isolated rotating DMC´s (LL shear 12.5m/s along the front) .. A cold pool formation (cell mergers) can enhance the severe wind gust risk so this situation should be closely monitored. |
Issued by: Novotny
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